Lažybos išsamiau

Temos pavadinimą aišku galima buvo ir geresnį parinkti, bet jei ką unik pakoreguos. Noriu pasidalinti įdomiu komentaru žmogaus, kuris lažybas išmano labai gerai, nes 18metų dirbo bukmekeriu (anglų kalba būtina). Skaitymo daug, bet informacija naudinga:

I worked as an Odds Compiler for the Tote, Betfred and one of the Spread Firms for 18 years and I may be able to shed some light on some of the questions that you are posing.

I'm a professional punter nowadays, and several of my former Odds Compiling colleagues have also left their jobs in recent years to become pro punters.

Virtually all bookmakers rate each team in each league according to past results and performances, with recent form (the last 5 or 6 matches) given
more credence than older form.

Every Odds Compiler will have numerous databases of statistics for each league, detailing the percentage of Home Wins, Draws, and Away Wins, the average number of Goals per game, average number of Goals for Home teams, Away Teams, Bookings, Corners etc etc.

In most leagues around 0.3 goals is given to a team for "home advantage",

If two teams are judged to be of equal ability this translates into odds of

11/10 Home team 23/10 Draw 2/1 Away team (betting to 111.24%)

According to my figures (using data from the last 20 seasons of results in
the Championship, League One & League Two) the actual probability of each outcome between 2 teams of equal ability is;

Home win 43% draw 28% Away win 29%

Therefore the bookmakers' odds of

11/10 Home win (47.62%) 23/10 Draw (30.3%) Away win 2/1 (33.33)

gives Firms a margin of error of 11.24% over the actual probabilities.

In my experience bookmakers are very rarely wrong in the Premiership, SPL
or Champions League games. But the lower down the leagues you go the more likely they are to be wrong.



Just to add to my earlier posting.

The reason why Bookmakers are very rarely wrong with their prices on the
Premiership, SPL, Champions League and the big International tournament
matches (World Cup and European Championship games) is;

Every Odds Compiler at every Firm watches all of the above games, either in their entirety, or at the very least watches the extended highlights of all of the above matches. The Compilers will also spend hours reading every match report, combing every statistic available, listening to every manager and player interview and reviewing every minor detail of the above matches.

The reason for this is that every Bookmaker in the UK will take more money on the Premier League games, Champions League games, International tournament games (World Cups, Euros) and the televised SPL games (Usually involving the "Old Firm") than they will take on all of the other leagues (domestic and foreign) put together!

At Firms that I worked for, we reckoned that roughly 80% of the bets we took were on the Premier League, SPL, Champions League matches and the Live televised games.

Therefore it was most important for us, as Odds Compilers to be right about our Odds for the bigger games - as we would lose a lot more if we were wrong!

Firms take far less money on the lower leagues (Leagues One & Two, Blue Square Conference, North/South and the Scottish Lower Leagues). Consequently fewer Odds Compilers spend generally less of their time studying and pricing up lower league matches.

From a Compilers point of view - whats the point when you might take 20 times more money on a Premier League game than you will on a Blue Square Conference match. If you get the prices wrong on a Premier League match you might lose the Firm £1,000,000 but if you get the prices wrong on a Blue Square Conference match the Firm might only lose £10,000.

There are of course some differences between different Firms and how they operate.

For instance in my opinion Blue Square's Odds are usually the most accurate in the Blue Square Conference matches - presumably because they make an extra effort in studying that League - as they sponsor it!

I also find that generally William Hills are the most accurate when it comes to pricing up Scottish Lower League matches. I know that they have a Compiler who spends his time doing nothing else but watching matches in the Scottish Lower leagues and studying them more closely than any other Firm.

I am barred from betting with any UK Firm (except Betfair and Betdaq) and place virtually all of my bets with the big Asian Firms (SBObet, IBCbet, Pinnacle etc) - You can get bigger bets on and those Firms only bet to 102 or 103% on games.


One additional point.

Most bookmakers will deliberately "skew" their prices in certain matches.

By "skew" I mean that Compilers know which teams are going to be heavily backed by the betting public, so they will deliberately make those teams slightly shorter in price than they really should be - in the knowledge that
most punters (the ill-informed and less knowledgable) will still back them anyway - whatever the price.

You see this sort of "skewing" happening a lot with the popular teams;

Rangers & Celtic, Man Utd, Liverpool, usually England in World Cups & Euros, some of the bigger teams outside the Premiership (West Ham in the Championship, Sheff Wed in League One, Luton in the Conference etc).

I generally find that the best bets and the best value is usually to be found by backing "unfashionable teams".

The most profitable teams to back in the Premiership last season were;

Wolves, Blackpool and West Brom!

You would have realised a profit of over 30% on turnover just by backing each of them blind in all 38 Premiership matches!

In contrast if you had backed Champions Man Utd blind in all 38 Premiership games you would have made a small LOSS!

Never follow the crowd.


I certainly agree with you that punting lower down the leagues is generally more profitable than punting in the Premiership, SPL and Champions Lea

Kas išwers duosiu 10 litų 😄 Ne viską eina suprasti...

Kad cia nera ka suprasti , is esmes visa straipsni kalbama kaip jie sunkiai ir ilgai analizuoja uk futbola nustatinedami linijas , istikruju tai nieko vertas sitas straipsnis - no offence Vamos

Kadangi speju tau su anglu kalba viskas tvarkoj, tai nesupratai ka as siuo straipsniu norejau pasakyti. Na ne esme, ne visiem duota suprast.

Paskutiniai 4 mano citatos zodziai taip pat nieko nebando izeisti.
Bent jau svarbiausias dalykas ka as norejau pasakyti, tai kad CL (ir kitu didziausiu lygu) dienomis bukmekeriai skiria maziau demesio kitoms lygoms, bet viskas cia parasyta. As skaitau si straipsni naudingu, ypac pradinukams.

Pora postu, kas čia būtų įdomaus, nelb suprantu, arba nieko gero 😄

Idomus straipsnis. Tik vienas dalykas ko nesuprantu, tai tu kofu, pvz 10/1, 4/5, 11/10, 23/10, 2/1 ir pan...
Gal kas galit paaiskint, kaip jas apskaiciuot?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixed-odds_betting

taip taip , maziau , bet man regis tas maziau demesio vistiek nesudaro dideles reiksmes , bet galu gale sutinku kad teoriskai sis straipsnis naudingas pradinukams kaip teorine medziaga giliau suprantant (sakykim kaip cia daugiau kalbama) futbolo liniju sudaryma ir pacia eiga kaip nustatomi koeficientai .

kalbant apie naudinga info pradedantiesiems galima sita paskaityti , aisku ten ne viskas protingai ir naudingai parasyta , bet kai kurie postai tikrai verti demesio ir gali nukreipti reikiama linkme
http://www.menstennisforums.com/showthread.php?t=156921

GL